Management Report

2. Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook [Table 1]
 


Growth1

2014

Growth1
forecast
2015
World +2.8% +2.6%
European Union +1.4% +1.8%
of which Germany +1.6% +1.7%
United States +2.4% +2.2%
Emerging markets2 +4.4% +3.9%
1 real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Global Insight
2
including about 50 countries defined by IHS Global Insight as emerging markets in line with the World Bank as of July 2015

The global economy is likely to grow in 2015 at the same pace as in the previous year, supported by a generally expansionary monetary policy and the sharp decline in oil prices. Following a weak first quarter, the pace of growth is expected to decline slightly in the United States. We expect the economic recovery in the European Union to continue, although significant risks still exist in the eurozone. The rate of expansion in the emerging countries is likely to weaken again slightly on average.

Economic Outlook for the Subgroups [Table 2]

Growth1
2014
Growth1
forecast
2015
HealthCare
Pharmaceuticals market +8% +6%
Consumer care market +4% +4%
Medical care market -1% +1%
Animal health market +5% +5%
CropScience
Seed and crop protection market +6% = 1%
MaterialScience
(main customer industries)
Automotive +3% +3%
Construction +4% +4%
Electrical / electronics +4% +5%
Furniture +4% +4%
1 Bayer's estimate; except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis. Copyright 2015. All rights reserved; currency-adjusted; 2014 data provisional
as of July 2015

The pharmaceuticals market is likely to grow slightly more slowly in 2015 than in the previous year, especially because of the lower growth rate predicted for this market in the United States. Following double-digit growth in the u.s. last year, which was driven by new product introductions and health system reforms, this market will probably expand at a slower rate in 2015, partly as a result of new patent expirations and launches of further generic products. We expect demand to be stable in the emerging economies.

Growth in the consumer care market in 2015 is likely to be level with the previous year. At Medical Care – our business with contrast agents and medical devices – we anticipate slight market growth. The animal health market is anticipated to grow at about the same rate as in 2014.

We expect the global seed and crop protection market to develop considerably more weakly in 2015 than in previous years. We anticipate stagnation or only very slight growth, mainly as a result of the low price level for agricultural commodities, which could have a negative effect on farmers’ yield expectations and, in turn, their investment decisions.

In view of the stable global economic climate, we continue to predict positive growth momentum in the main customer industries of MaterialScience in 2015.

Last updated: July 29, 2015  Copyright © Bayer AG
http://www.quarterly-report-2015-q2.bayer.com